How Australia will vote on the Voice: Likely outcome of referendum revealed

If you believe the polls, the referendum on a proposed Indigenous Voice to Parliament will be overwhelmingly defeated after Australians cast their votes on Saturday.

But a fair chunk of people remain undecided, meaning there’s ground to be made by either side of the issue.

To succeed, a majority of people nationally need to vote Yes – as well as a majority of states, meaning at least four of the six. The ACT and Northern Territory count only toward the overall national vote.

This is where things stand according to the latest polls.

State of the nation

The latest Newspoll conducted for The Australian showed support for the Voice sliding further, down now to just 34 per cent.

An overwhelming 58 per cent of voters intend to vote No, it found.

The margin was a little tighter in the latest Resolve Strategic poll conducted for Nine Newspapers, with 49 per cent planning to vote no compared to 38 per cent voting yes.

The latest Roy Morgan polling shows the No camp polling at 46 per cent compared to just 37 per cent for Yes.

Where Yes is ahead

Roy Morgan’s polling indicates voters in Victoria will back the Voice, with more in favour than not in its latest poll.

Meanwhile, polling by Resolve released at the weekend indicates Tasmania will vote in support of the Voice, with the Yes vote on a very healthy 56 per cent.

However, it’s worth noting that the sample size in Tassie was small.

Similarly, every seat in the Australian Capital Territory will vote in favour of the Voice, according to research by UK polling outfit Focal Data.

And that’s where the good news ends for the Yes campaign.

Polls released in recent weeks show the No campaign’s position strengthening in every other state and territory.

However, the Resolve poll – like others – shows there is a healthy percentage of ‘soft’ voters remaining. That is, people who could be swayed one way or the other.

States where it could be close

When it comes to states that could be key battlegrounds, your definition of ‘close’ matters quite a bit.

The Resolve poll shows No leading in NSW and Victoria, on 52 per cent and 54 per cent respectively. No is ahead in South Australia on 55 per cent the vote.

Accounting for a margin error and a late surge in support for Yes from undecided and softer voters, things could tighten between now and Saturday.

As mentioned, there remains a fair number of undecided voters – some 17 per cent, according to Roy Morgan.

However, it noted that in past referendums, undecided voters are “far more likely to end up as a No rather than a Yes’”.

So, if that trend repeats, the overall outcome could be a much starker defeat for the Yes campaign.

States where it’s all but over

Queensland is currently polling the largest No results in the country, with 62 per cent of voters planning to vote No, according to the latest Resolve poll.

Roy Morgan’s polling shows Queensland has “the strongest opposition” in the country, with a clear majority of voters in the No camp.

If current polling is reflected on referendum day, just a single electorate in Western Australia will vote in support of the Voice.

The Focal Data research painted a dire picture of the likelihood of success in the state, with only the inner-city seat of Perth polling in favour at 52 per cent.

The other 58 federal seats in WA were opposed to the Voice – some convincingly so.

In the northern suburbs electorate of Cowan, 60 per cent of voters polled said they intend to vote No. The seats of Fremantle and Curtin both leaned heavily to No on 59 per cent each.

How the big cities are polling

The closer a voter is to a major capital city’s CBD, the more likely it is they will vote Yes in the referendum, the Focal Data poll indicated.

This is particularly the case in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne, where there are more people planning to vote Yes than No.

Conversely, some regional centres are staunchly against the Voice, polling indicates.

For example, the Queensland federal electorate of Kennedy, held by veteran Independent MP Bob Katter, is polling a staggering 84.9 per cent to No, according to Focal Data.

It also found National Party leader David Littleproud’s mega seat of Maranoa in Queensland is not far behind, with No polling 81 per cent.

The political and gender split

As the referendum has crept closer, Roy Morgan has expanded its polling to capture some key demographic data.

For example, it has found a “clear gender split” with a slim majority of men backing No and slightly more woman saying Yes than No.

The Coalition has been campaigning against the Voice for months and its supporters have fallen in behind.

The Focal Data polling indicated the Yes vote will not succeed in a single Liberal Party seat across the country.

On the other end of the spectrum, many Labor seats are leaning towards Yes, with Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek’s electorate of Sydney leading the charge on a whopping 70.4 per cent.

Nearby Grayndler, held by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, is polling 64.5 per cent to Yes.

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