If not Kamala Harris, who else could be the Democratic nominee for the November election?
NEW YORK CITY/CHICAGO: President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign and drop out of the US presidential race has created enough momentum for Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic presidential nominee, according to three Arab American analysts.
Biden, who endorsed Harris in his exit announcement on Sunday, trailed former President Donald Trump in the polls amid the growing Arab American #AbandonBiden movement and broader calls for him to drop out of the race in 2024 after his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate in Atlanta. .
What was supposed to be a coronation for the 81-year-old Biden at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on August 19 has now become an open contest in which the party's nearly 4,700 delegates will vote by state for the candidate of their choice to challenge Trump. , the nominee of the Republican Party.
Rana Abtar, a Washington DC talk show host for Asharq News, expects Harris to become the Democratic nominee, although several other candidates could be considered. However, he believes that if Democrats are to win the November election, they “must show unity.”
“Today we notice that Democrats are starting to support Harris, one by one,” she told Arab News. “There were some delegates in several states who had already voted to support Kamala Harris. That means their votes will be reflected in the Democratic National Convention.
“The rest of the Democrats who have not yet endorsed Harris are expected to fall in line soon. At some point we will see all Democrats, or most Democrats, rally behind Harris. It is very important for Democrats to show a show of unity after the dilemma their party faced after President Biden announced he would not seek a second term.
Biden's withdrawal from the race will free up his convention delegates from the 50 states and provinces to endorse any candidate during the convention. Many alternative names are emerging, including centrist Sen. Joe Manchin, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, former first lady Michelle Obama, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
Abtar noted that Harris is popular among African-American voters, a traditional pillar of support for the Democratic Party, and said many still see her as part of the Biden administration's policies that fueled the #AbandonBiden movement, in which Arab and Muslim voters were key. state primaries for “no vote” or “no vote” rather than for president.
“Harris is not that popular in the polls,” Abtar said. “Many Democrats worry that her chances against Trump are the same as President Biden's against Trump. Of course, in the coming days, we will see Harris come out and speak to voters, as she has not spoken directly to the American people on many occasions in the past in her role as vice president.
“Biden gave her the immigration thing, which in itself puts her in a very uncomfortable position, especially since the main attack Republicans have against Democrats is immigration and border security.
“But I believe the most important element here is not Harris. It will be whoever he chooses as his candidate because voters need excitement. Democratic voters need excitement to get out and vote.”
Abtar said third-party candidates, such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein, are often seen as “election spoilers” — people who could take votes away from Harris or even Trump.
“Kennedy's numbers are considered pretty high for an independent candidate, and his voters may switch votes in the election season by taking votes away from … Trump or Harris … if he gets the official nomination,” Abtar said.
Any of the individuals currently being proposed as a replacement for Biden could become a vice presidential candidate, including Pritzker, a billionaire with presidential ambitions of his own.
Amal Mudallali, former ambassador to the UN and CEO of Bridges International Group, thinks Harris has a “perception problem”.
She told Arab News: “The assumption is that she was not a strong vice president, that she will not be a strong candidate and that she will not be able to beat Trump.
Although Democrats appeared to be moving quickly to rally behind Harris, including the support of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Monday, Mudallali remains cautious.
“Everything is up in the air because there are still very powerful Democrats who are calling for an open convention and an open field where everybody can throw their hat in the ring and see if they can get the strongest candidate for the Democratic Party. to be able to beat Trump,” she said.
The influence of independent candidates in the elections cannot be written off either, she added.
“In a very close election, independent candidates can do a lot of damage. Because this election is a very close race — you're talking about a few thousand or a thousand votes — that could make or break an election campaign,” Mudallali said.
“Let's say if Kennedy could get a lot of Democratic votes, it could hurt the Democrats more and be a big problem for them.
“However, we do not yet know who will be the candidate of the Democratic Party. If the individual is a very strong candidate, the party might be able to unify an anti-Trump constituency that will overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic nominee. In that case, independents won't change anything.”
Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes Harris is “pretty sure” to replace Biden as the running mate, and suggested Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer could be her running mate on the first “women's ticket.”
Arab News said: “Speculation is heavily focused on who will be her vice presidential running mate, including a possible women's ticket if she chooses Whitmer. This is unprecedented and carries risks. But Whitmer could help secure the key state of Michigan, and the women's team could reinvigorate a currently largely demoralized Democratic base.
He added: “Harris' approval ratings with the American public have never been high. But at this point, the decision by the Democratic Party and President Biden to put her name forward is largely based on funding and finances. She is the only one who will be able to qualify for all the money, the hundreds of millions of dollars that have been collected so far. Therefore, her choice of candidate will also be crucial in terms of bringing this Democratic base closer and for the general likability of this Democratic ticket.”
Maksad believes that Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race and speculation about Whitmer's addition to the ticket could influence Michigan's strong Arab and Muslim votes, many of whom voted against the Biden-Harris team in the February 27 Democratic primary.
“Arab Americans are not monolithic,” he said. “They are a diverse group with different priorities spread across four battlefields. Michigan is getting a lot of attention, but so are Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania.
“In Michigan, where there are 100,000, they feel strongly about the war in Gaza and that President Biden is not doing enough to stop the war. By stepping aside, Biden opens up the potential for the Democratic Party to make inroads again among Arab Americans in Michigan. And if the vice president (choice) was actually the governor of Michigan, then that would give Democrats even more opportunity to make a push and reclaim Michigan as a key battleground state.
