One word has AFL teams absolutely terrified.
The two teams yet to win a game this season face off in the Sunday ‘graveyard’ timeslot this weekend in a microcosm of every AFL club’s biggest fear — the ‘rebuild’.
North Melbourne and Hawthorn are both 0-5 and look light years away from contending for finals or a premiership.
A dominant Kangaroos team won two flags in the 90s, while the Hawks are finally experiencing some hardship after winning a premiership in every decade since the 1960s — capped off by a rare three-peat in the 2010s.
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But with the AFL’s draft system compromised by father-son picks (think Collingwood’s Nick Daicos and Brisbane’s Will Ashcroft) and the junior academies in the northern states, it’s never been harder to rebuild from the bottom.
Western Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge this week declared “rebuilding is a myth” after he was accused of sending mixed messages about his club’s direction after leaving talented players out of the team.
Beveridge isn’t afraid to mix new recruits and plenty of youngsters with established players — a rebuild-on-the-run approach he hopes will help the likes of Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore win another premiership before they retire.
“The rebuilding term is a myth,” he said before his side’s 60-point demolition of St Kilda on Thursday.
“You cannot rebuild in our code, in our competition within the constraints that exist with the draft and the salary cap. You just can’t, you can’t do it.
“Rebuilding infers that you’re knocking something down and it’s coming from the ground up from a new origin and you just can’t do that.”
Collingwood president Jeff Browne echoed those sentiments, telling the Herald Sun the Magpies would go to the trade table to stay in premiership contention.
Recruits Tom Mitchell, Bobby Hill, Dan McStay and Oleg Markov were all pivotal in Collingwood’s premiership win last year.
The Pies replaced Jack Ginnivan with Lachie Schultz in the off-season and are linked with out of contract Bulldogs star Bailey Smith.
“We don’t intend to go to the bottom of the ladder, so we can never really rely on the draft,” Browne said.
“We have got to trade, like we did last year with those four players (Mitchell, McStay, Hill and Frampton) and then we pick up Oleg Markov, and this year we get Lachie Schultz.
“We have to trade to improve our side. For successful clubs who don’t want to drop down to the bottom, the draft doesn’t really work for them.”
Why is an AFL rebuild so hard?
There is nothing worse in sport than your team being in the no-man’s land of mid-table mediocrity.
A perfect example is the NBA’s Chicago Bulls, who refuse to bottom out, while Josh Giddey’s Oklahoma City Thunder are seeing the fruits of investing in high draft picks and hoping they turn into superstars.
But rebuilds are hard, and they don’t always work. The risk of course is you can be bad for a very long time.
Carlton took Matthew Kreuzer, Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs with the No. 1 pick in the 2000s and while they had fine careers, they ultimately weren’t difference makers.
A clip resurfaced last week of ex-Carlton coach Brendon Bolton telling baby-faced talents Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow, Jacob Weitering and Tom De Koning in 2018 they would become that team’s future “spine”.
That was six years ago. The Blues haven’t made the top four since 2000 but have finally taken a leap and are among the premiership contenders this year, with Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh in the midfield.
The moral of the story that clubs are realising is rebuilds are hard.
North Melbourne have struggled since they ditched veterans Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Nick Dal Santo and Michael Firrito in 2016.
The Kangaroos have drafted top end talent in the midfield, but they remain desperate for key defenders. Trying to name the last recruit who played his best football at North is a difficult task.
There were hopes Hawthorn could be able to climb the ladder but after an attempt to stay afloat by trading for Tom Mitchell and Chad Wingard failed, they have bottomed out again.
Leigh Montagna said on Fox Footy’s AFL 360 this week: “It was sort of my whole frustration with Hawthorn when everyone said it’s a three to five year rebuild.
“We’ve never seen a three to five year rebuild. They’re upwards of 10 years if you’re going to do it properly.
“Carlton and Melbourne have probably been the two that took a long, long time to find a core group that can do it.
“I understand Bevo’s point. He’s saying ‘I’m not going to wait until all these players are 30 plus and they’re over the hill’. He understands they’ve got to regenerate on the run.
“It’s much easier in the modern competition when you’re at the top, to stay up near the top than it is to go down the bottom and think you’re going to work your way up. It takes way longer than people take credit for.”
‘Tasmania will win a flag before Hawthorn’
Apart from the AFL’s father-son rule, the junior Academies at clubs like the Sydney Swans and Gold Coast Suns are a nightmare for mid-table Victorian teams trying to find talent in the draft.
Gold Coast entered the AFL in 2011 and while they are yet to make finals, their conveyor of belt local talent is starting to take shape.
It’s also easy to forget the Swans got first dibs on Callum Mills, Isaac Heeney and Errol Gulden thanks to their Academy.
A decade ago the AFL created the draft value index – a system that allocated a points value to the first 73 picks in the draft.
It essentially means clubs that have existing links to draftees, either via their academy or father-son eligibility, must ‘pay’ to secure these players via multiple picks and give rival clubs the chance to bid on these players.
Nonetheless, the Academy connection remains a huge advantage for those teams and the introduction of the Tasmania Devils in 2028 has legends convinced rebuilding teams could miss out on top draftees and be in serious strife.
“Is this the worst time ever to be 0-5 and in the middle of a rebuild, as Hawthorn are right now?” Garry Lyon asked on Fox Footy’s On The Couch this week.
“Hawthorn, North Melbourne, West Coast, and probably the (Richmond) Tigers though they’ve got injuries, they’re about to go through a world of pain, and it’s going to be a hard way to see themselves out.
“They’re the second-youngest team, the second-least experienced team, only North were younger. They’re in this total rebuild and now we’re looking at the Gold Coast Suns and how they’re going about it with their Academy … it is just scary.
“This is just the Gold Coast Suns. Then you throw Sydney into the mix and the Brisbane Lions with the Ashcroft boys (Will and Levi) coming through. Then you’ve got Tasmania on the horizon.
“How do they you out of this? This is what I’m worried about. The rebuild is so hard.
“They’re about to go through a world of pain.
“Picks in the 20s (used to be) worth something. These days they get pushed out further and further.
“I’m petrified for these clubs. The academy numbers are just crazy. We’ve all got to suck it up and go back to the draft at some stage but geez it’s a long way back. It is a scary proposition.”
Jonathan Brown believes the distribution of talent via the draft means the AFL’s 19th team will win a premiership before Hawthorn.
“I was told by a recruiter all the under 15s in the country, if they’re good they’ll be going to Tasmania, that’s how close it is,” Brown said.
“Then you go hang on a minute, North Melbourne and Hawthorn have only got two years to take the elite talent. Recent history tells you anything out of the top 20 is usually a miss.
“There’s no doubt the Hawthorn team of 2012 to 2015 capitalised on the fact that teams on the bottom couldn’t catch up and make up ground on them because that’s when Gold Coast and GWS (entered the AFL).
“They got the job done in September but all the elite talent was getting farmed out to the Suns and the Giants.
“That’s the challenge with Tasmania. Mark my words, Tasmania will have all the concessions that GWS and Gold Coast had and maybe a bit more.
“The way I look at it now, I’d say Tasmania are going to win a premiership before Hawthorn.
“As it currently stands, that’s how hard the rebuild is. That’s not a knock on Sam Mitchell or the Hawthorn football club, it’s just a reality of the system. When you have new teams come in to the competition, you don’t want to be down the bottom.”
Nathan Buckley noted Geelong are the one team that has managed to stay contending at the top of the ladder thanks to shrewd recruiting.
“Do we think rebuilds only happen through the draft now? You need capital on your list too and use that effectively,” Buckley said.
“I think Geelong have been the prime example of having a build, knowing when they’re going to drop off and then adding to it.”
Geelong’s secret to never rebuilding
Fox Footy’s Cam Mooney told news.com.au Geelong makes a concerted effort to recruit “good people” who can continue their “winning culture”.
“It is tough but it comes down to who you’re recruiting and your needs,” Mooney said of the tasking of rebuilding an AFL club.
“You have a winning culture because you’ve got good people.
“That’s probably the biggest point Geelong have really stuck with. You bring in good people and that means you generally have success.
Mooney said Cats recruiting boss Stephen Wells deserves plenty of credit for recruiting the likes of Patrick Dangerfield, Jeremy Cameron and plenty of other lesser likes over the years.
“I think Stephen Wells is the best recruiter the game’s ever seen.
“It’s not about the kid with the most talent. On draft night if it’s between two guys but the talented guy with a few question marks, he’ll always go for the less talented kid.”
So could Bailey Smith fit in at Geelong?
“Absolutely. If they’ve got enough room for him to come down,” Mooney said.
“I’ve seen Bailey down in Lorne a couple times over the years. He does like this side of Melbourne.
“If Geelong was able to get him and he was able to fit into the culture of the football club, which I’m sure he could — that would be a fantastic get for Geelong if that was to come about.”