Druze in shock as war between Israel and Hezbollah strikes home

BEIRUT/DUBAI: Israel's security cabinet has authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to retaliate for Saturday's rocket attack on a soccer field in the Druze Arab town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 children.

According to the Israeli military, Majdal Shams was hit by an Iranian-made Falaq-1 missile carrying a 50kg warhead, fired by the Lebanese, Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia – a conclusion supported by the US.

Hezbollah, which has traded regularly across the border with Israel since the Gaza war began on October 7, said it had “no connection” to the incident, but confirmed it had fired one such rocket at an Israeli military target in the Golan on Saturday.

It said in a statement that “the Islamic resistance has absolutely nothing to do with the incident and we categorically deny all false allegations in this regard”, instead blaming the deaths on a failed Israeli fighter missile.

The Majdal Shams incident followed an Israeli strike that killed four Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon, prompting the militia to launch retaliatory rocket attacks on the Golan Heights and northern Israel.

In a thread posted on the X social media platform, Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said one possible scenario is that Hezbollah or one of its allies, such as the Al-Fajr forces and the Al-Qassam Brigades he fired the rockets by mistake.

Regardless of what happened, “in all cases, the massacre gave the Netanyahu government (an excuse) to respond with force,” he said.

Netanyahu, who returned early from his visit to the US, immediately attended a security cabinet meeting and told local media that “Hezbollah will pay a heavy price” for the attack, “a price it has not yet paid”.

His office said after the meeting: “Members of the Cabinet have instructed the Prime Minister and the Minister of Defense to decide on the manner and timing of the response against the terrorist organization Hezbollah.

On Sunday, during a visit to Majdal Shams, Gallant vowed to “hit the enemy hard”, sparking fears that the war in Gaza could widen. Meanwhile, Iran warned Israel that any new military “adventure” in Lebanon could lead to “unforeseen consequences.”

The Israeli military called it the “deadliest attack on Israeli civilians” since the firefight across the Lebanese border began in October. The attack raised fears that what had so far been relatively limited hostilities could escalate into all-out war.

Indeed, observers of the region fear that any major retaliation for the attack by Israel could even draw Iran's backers of Hezbollah into the fray.

“A strong Israeli response against Hezbollah could provoke another direct retaliation from Iran,” Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-born Israeli Middle East commentator and academic, said after the missile attack.

As with previous escalating incidents between Israel and its Iran-backed foes since the outbreak of the Gaza war, the retaliatory actions have been relatively small and carefully orchestrated to maintain their deterrent effect without provoking a major confrontation.

But Firas Maksad, senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, is under no illusions about the gravity of the situation. “The risk of another miscalculation was no higher,” he said.

“A wider Israel-Lebanon war has been coming for a long time.” The “positive” scenario will see the upcoming offensive confined to the now largely depopulated areas of both countries.

Although the rocket attack and subsequent Israeli retaliation could create the conditions for a rapid escalation, Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center believes Hezbollah is still eager to avoid all-out war.

“It remains that Hezbollah wants to avoid war and would show restraint after the Israeli response,” he said. “Even if Hezbollah had crossed the red line, Hezbollah would probably choose a symbolic 'check the box' response.”

However, “the Majdal Shams attack highlights the challenge of sustaining a geographically limited conflict for many months. Mistakes or miscalculations are bound to happen and could escalate into conflict, regardless of the desire of various parties to avoid conflict.”

Israel followed through on its threat of retaliation early Sunday morning by striking the southern Lebanese cities of Abbasiyah and Burj Al-Shamali. Both cities adjacent to the city of Tire suffered considerable material damage. Other attacks took place on Tire Harfa and Khiyam.

The strikes also took place in Taraya in central Bekaa, with two missiles destroying a residential building. No casualties were reported.

“Nobody wants a big war,” Kim Ghattas, a Lebanese journalist based in Beirut who writes for The Atlantic, wrote on X.

“Israel will seek to hit key or highly visible targets either in one heavy night of strikes or a week of operations. The key is to avoid population centers/civilian casualties and not trigger a major response from Hezbollah and a wider war.

“This is very difficult to calibrate. High stakes for Lebanon, the region and the Biden administration. Israel has not yet called for the evacuation of other settlements in northern Israel, indicating it believes Hezbollah's response will be measured.

“All of this requires open channels of communication to ensure that no one reads the other side's moves.” It's like a choreography of death with all-too-real consequences for civilians around the world.”

As tensions rose over the weekend, several Western countries issued statements urging their citizens to avoid all unnecessary travel to Lebanon and Israel. Meanwhile, several airlines have suspended flights to and from Beirut.

Since the attack, there has been a flurry of diplomatic activity aimed at limiting Israel's response.

The Lebanese government condemned all acts of violence and attacks on civilians. “The attack on civilians is a flagrant violation of international law and against the principles of humanity,” it said in a statement, calling for an “immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts.”

Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib told local TV station Al-Jadeed that the US, France and others were trying to contain the escalation.

“Since the beginning of the war, Hezbollah has targeted military sites, not civilian sites,” he said, adding that he “doesn't believe he carried out this attack on Majdal Shams.”

“It may have been done by other organizations, Israel's fault, or even Hezbollah's fault. I don't know. We need an international investigation to find out the truth about the whole thing.”

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati also said in a statement on Sunday that “talks are underway with international, European and Arab parties to protect Lebanon and avert danger.”

Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the US National Security Council, said Washington had been “continuing to engage” with Israel and Lebanon since the attack.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the missile attack and called on all parties to exercise “maximum restraint”.

In a joint statement, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, and Major General Aroldo Lazaro, head of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, stressed that “civilians must always be protected.”

They called on “the parties to exercise maximum restraint and end the intense and ongoing firefight that could ignite a wider conflict that would plunge the entire region into an unimaginable disaster.”

Hennis-Plasschaert said she was in contact with Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament, who is considered an important channel of communication with Hezbollah.

Berri said in his own statement that “Lebanon and its resistance (Hezbollah) are committed to resolution 1701 and the rules of engagement not to target civilians,” stressing that “the denial of what happened in Majdal Shams categorically confirms this commitment and Lebanon's lack of responsibility for what happened.”

Walid Jumblatt, an influential former leader of the Druze Progressive Socialist Party, said he received a phone call from US President Joe Biden's special envoy Amos Hochstein on Saturday night to discuss the incident.

Jumblatt urged both sides to exercise restraint and maintain calm, reemphasizing the need to avoid civilian casualties. “Wherever it happens, the targeting of civilians, whether in occupied Palestine, the occupied Golan, or southern Lebanon, is unacceptable,” he said in a statement.

The fact that those killed in the Majdal Shams attack were not Israelis but members of the Druze community is a complicating factor for Hezbollah, which has sought to improve relations with the religious sect.

Many residents of Majdal Shams have not adopted Israeli nationality since Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967.

After capturing about two-thirds of the Golan Heights during the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, Israel annexed the area in 1981 in a move not recognized by the international community, with the exception of the US as of 2019.

The Golan Druze mostly identify as Syrian, while in Israel they have resident status rather than citizenship. Members of the Druze community in Syria have resisted the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, who is supported by Hezbollah.

“The 'casu belli' of war is particularly important to Hezbollah,” said Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical analyst and head of the analyst team at Le Beck International.

“They will have to justify their actions to the Lebanese (who would suffer massive destruction from Israel) if war breaks out as a result of the Majdal Shams attack, and that will be particularly unpleasant for them.

“Hezbollah wants to be seen as the defender of Lebanon. If a war breaks out over an attack that kills the townspeople (who don't even identify as Israelis), that would be especially bad for the group.

“This explains the denial of Hezbollah beyond sectarian dynamics.” The very story of how the war begins is critical to the group.”