Donald Trump is set to easily clinch the position of Republican nominee for the US presidential election in November, but a primary election in a US state may worry him and could indicate he may not be able to clinch the presidency so easily.
On Tuesday evening (US time) the results came in for the primary in Pennsylvania, a key swing state which could decide whether Mr Trump or incumbent Joe Biden are in the White House come January 2025.
While Mr Trump easily won the Republican primary, almost 20 per cent of voters opted for a rival candidate who didn’t campaign and isn’t even in the race anymore.
A commentator said it could be a “reason for concern” for Mr Trump. But other indicators have suggested Mr Trump could still triumph on election day.
Primaries decide who from each party will be the candidate for President. While they acted as a serious contest several months back, where numerous candidates from each party jostled to be the presidential pick, now Mr Trump and Mr Biden are the only candidates standing and will almost certainly be the nominees.
Huge number for ‘zombie’ candidate
Mr Trump won 83 per cent of the Republican Presidential primary votes in Pennsylvania.
However, in numbers that will concern the Trump campaign team, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley garnered 17 per cent of the vote.
Ms Haley dropped out of the battle to be the Republican nominee in early March following a string of primary defeats to Mr Trump.
Ms Haley’s name was already on the ballot before she dropped out of the race on 6 March.
She didn’t campaign at all in Pennsylvania and she has zero chance of being the presidential candidate. Ms Haley was a zombie candidate.
And still, more than 156,000 Pennsylvanians voted for a zombie. In some areas, her vote share was around 20 per cent while in Chester county, which includes half a million people in suburban Philadelphia, one in four opted for Ms Haley.
The strong showing for Ms Haley appears to demonstrates that significant numbers of voters, particularly those in the centre and Republican so-called “never Trumpers”, are unhappy with Mr Trump’s candidacy.
‘Cause for concern’
Despite doing no campaigning, Ms Haley fared better in Pennsylvania then she did in some states when she was still in the race.
In Alabama, for instance, she got only 13 per cent of the vote on Super Tuesday.
Notably, Ms Haley has yet to endorse Mr Trump for president.
In March, another former rival for the Republican ticket – and the vice present in the Trump administration – Mike Pence said he would not endorsed Mr Trump citing “profound differences” on a “range of issues”.
“Ms Haley’s showing may not have significantly impacted Trump taking the state on his way to officially becoming the Republican nominee,” said Jared Ganes reporting for website The Hill.
“But it could indicate a reason for concern in the general election, in which Pennsylvania is one of the key battleground states that could determine the winner of the Oval Office”.
In the 2020 presidential election, Mr Biden beat Mr Trump by 80,500 voters. If Ms Haley’s 150,000 plus votes remain out of Mr Trump’s reach it could have serious consequences for his chances
Pennsylvania is a key swing state with significant numbers of blue collar and rural voters as well as suburban and inner city voters in the major cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
Pennsylvania also has 19 votes in the US Electoral College, the mechanism by which presidents are decided, the fifth highest in the country.
Biden will also have concerns
Mr Biden didn’t have it all his own way in the Pennsylvania primary either.
Dean Phillips, who like Ms Haley had his name on the ballot despite him dropping out, took 7 per cent of the Democrat vote.
But Mr Biden’s 93 per cent vote share is higher than Mr Trump’s 83 per cent.
Trump’s campaign team will take solace from a number of recent polls which have shown him ahead of his rival.
A Wall Street Journal survey from earlier this month showed Mr Trump ahead of Mr Biden in six of the seven most competitive states. That included Pennsylvania, where Mr Trump was three basis points ahead of Mr Biden.
In addition, Mr Biden has had some primaries where his vote was far less than expected.
In the Minnesota primary, when Mr Phillips was still in the race, Mr Biden’s vote fell to just 70 per cent. Mr Phillips took 8 per cent of those votes but almost 19 per cent when to “uncommitted,” which a voter can tick if they prefer neither candidate.
That was thought to be a protest vote against the US Government’s support for Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza which has now led to tens of thousands of deaths.
If those protest votes against Mr Biden in the primary turn into Democrats refusing to turn up to vote in November, Mr Trump may win even without the Never Trumpers.